If you’ve been tracking Indian markets lately, you know the story: the indices keep hitting new highs, yet your portfolio might not reflect the same enthusiasm. This is the classic retail investor dilemma. Many investors buy stocks based on news headlines or simple screener metrics like a low P/E ratio, only to realize they joined the party just as the smart money (institutions) was leaving.
In 2025, relying solely on lagging indicators like past quarterly results is no longer enough. To identify multi-baggers before they become household names, you must look at the subtle, often invisible data points that institutional investors use.
Here’s a checklist to guide you beyond the usual price tags.
1. The Volume Dry-Up Before the Breakout
Most retail investors chase volume after it spikes. However, the best entry point often appears when a stock is in a consolidation phase and trading volume drops sharply. This usually indicates that short-term traders have exited and that big players are quietly accumulating shares without moving the price.
Actionable Tip: Look for stocks that have traded sideways for 3–6 months where the trading volume has dropped to its lowest point in a year.
2. Delivery Percentage vs. Traded Volume
A stock might rise 5% in a day, but if its delivery percentage is low (under 20%), the move is likely driven by intraday speculators, not genuine buyers. Conversely, if a stock remains flat but has a delivery percentage above 60%, it suggests investors are accumulating shares with a long-term view.
3. Changing the Toolkit: AI and Second-Order Effects
Until recently, hedge funds had a massive advantage because they could analyze millions of data points—supply chains, sentiment, and sector correlations—instantly. Retail investors were limited to spreadsheets.
That gap is closing. A new wave of tools built for the Indian market now enables retail investors to analyze NSE/BSE stocks with institutional-level depth. For example, platforms like Bullrun.co.in use AI to detect second-order effects—identifying not just winning sectors but also the supply chain partners poised to benefit most from a government policy or emerging trend.
Using platforms that explore beyond basic “Price to Book” or “P/E” filters can help level the playing field with large funds.
4. Promoter Buying: The Ultimate Confidence Signal
There’s an old saying on Dalal Street: promoters can sell for many reasons—buying property, paying debts, or diversifying—but they buy for only one reason: they believe the stock will go up.
Keep a close eye on quarterly shareholding patterns. Even a modest 0.5% increase in promoter holding in a small-cap company is a strong buy signal and often more reliable than any analyst forecast.
5. Operating Cash Flow (OCF) > EBITDA
This is the quickest way to filter out financial manipulation. If a company reports high EBITDA but has zero or negative operating cash flow, stay cautious. That suggests profits exist only on paper—billed but not received. Authentic growth companies generate real cash, not just invoices.
Conclusion
The era of easy money in the stock market is likely behind us. To generate alpha in the years ahead, investors must shift focus from where the price was to where the value is. Whether you manually track promoter holdings or use AI-based scanners to uncover hidden gems, the goal remains the same: buy quality, stay patient, and let compounding work its magic.
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